Black Share Of Homicide Offenders Grew From 46% In Early 1980s To 64% In 2020
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Murder is increasingly becoming a black thing in the United States.

From the Patterns in Humanity Substack:

Quantifying Racial Disparities in Homicide Perpetration

Inquisitive Bird
Oct 16, 2022

The FBI keeps track of homicide statistics, including the race of victims and offenders. However, a substantial number of homicides have unknown offenders. Herein I develop a method that combines CDC victimization data and FBI perpetrator data to produce more reliable homicide perpetration statistics. The analysis provides clues about the distribution of the unknown perpetrators.

The black line is @Scientific_Bird’s estimate, using both FBI (blue line) and CDC data (red line), of the black share of all homicide offenders. The black share has gotten considerably worse from the early 1980s, when the black share of murder offenders was in the upper 40s, to the “racial reckoning” year of 2020, when it reached almost 65%.

After the relative peace of the Cosby Era (Reagan’s first term) came crack. After the crack wars were over, the black share settled down to the lower 50s. During the Great Recession, Hispanic homicidality declined (for reasons little explored), driving up the black share. Then came the Ferguson Effect and finally the spectacular Floyd Effect in 2020.

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