Joe Biden’s big plan is to have 100 million Americans inoculated in his first 100 days, a lightning fast pace that would get the whole county done in only 11 months, or perhaps longer due to taking time off for Black History Month, corporate-sponsored Gay Pride Parades, and other necessities.
In other news, when will we see definitive evidence out of Israel that its mass vaccination achievement are having the real world effects promised by the clinical trials? From the Financial Times:
Lockdown extended amid estimates B.1.1.7 variant will account for most new infections by March
Mehul Srivastava in Tel Aviv and Clive Cookson in London 4 HOURS AGO
Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.
Close to 2.3m Israelis — out of an adult population of just over 6m — have received their first shot of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which provides some protection after 10 days of the jab. Just over 600,000 have received their second jabs, the government said Thursday.
But with daily new infections climbing past 10,000 this week and a record 720 deaths so far this month, hospital admissions continue to rise. …
The number of Israelis showing signs of infection dipped marginally, from 9.2 per cent of those tested to 9 per cent, this week.
But California, where vaccinations have been about an order of magnitude slower, is seeing a similar over-the-hump pattern this week.
The better way to analyze this question is not in national terms but among the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated, or among the elderly (mostly inoculated) vs. the young (mostly not). So far, all I’ve heard along those lines is that Pfizer first dose does have a statistically noticeable effect in the third and final week after the first dose and just before the second dose, but it’s only about half as strong as the very high number reported in Pfizer’s clinical trial (a finding that helped lead to the UK’s quasi-First Doses First of prioritizing first doses over second doses)
Here’s roughly my timeline:
The lags from first dose of Pfizer vaccine are something like:
2 weeks to start reducing infections
1 week for infections to become cases
1 week for cases to become hospitalizations
2 weeks for hospitalizations to become deaths.
= 6 weeks
Israel is 4.8 weeks after first 1st dose on December 19.
So, I’m just being antsy right now. On the other hand, if we don’t have good data out of Israel by, say, Monday, February 1, then I will start to worry. Vaccines Work is a good Plan A. I’m not sure what Plan B is.